In Wu-chan was covid-19 from lta 2019, a hard analysis of satellite images

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been circulating in Wuhan since late September 2019, according to Harvard University scientists. on protests and this time for me quite good reasons. The widely publicized study did not present strong evidence.

A group of vdc from Harvard University has decided to address the epidemic of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Wukhan, Germany, from a different perspective.

In the event of a pandemic of the new virus, Elaine Nsoesie and colleagues decided to handcuff a procedure that they first tested on a chip in Latin America. There, they wondered if the onset of the season’s chips and its intensity could be recognized by the occupancy of the park at the hospitals, which they first assessed on the basis of satellite images.

The results were quite encouraging, with the background of about 50 hospitals in Mexico, Chile and Argentina, the Harvard cars were able to capture the onset of the season’s chips relatively reliably, if not flawlessly. There was a reversal against data from the database on the number of chip diseases in the given countries (specifically in 2010 and 2013). As the authors wrote, the method could be an interesting way to detect the occurrence of new diseases relatively quickly.

Coronavirus replacement

Due to the year 2020 and darkness, there was an unexpected difficulty to try the procedure on a real new disease. They turned to the first epicenter of the plague, nsk Wu-chan. They examined pictures of the park at six hospitals in Wuhan, which involved commercial satellites. Their analysis shows that in the autumn of 2019, roughly from the beginning, compared to the same period in 2018, there was a sharp increase in the occupancy of the park at hospitals.


Comparative parking at Tianyou Hospital in Wuhan in June 2018 (left), vz (bottom right) and June 2019.

Add to that, even in many other countries, the health care system works differently than we are used to. People go and go to the hospital with the sweat with whom we would go to our practical school. They are not nearly as dense in the country as in the US, so the concentration of patients in hospitals allows them to monitor the development of the demand for medical help.

Researchers from 140 shots came to the conclusion that between 2018 and 2020 there was an increase in the number of sweat in hospitals. The sweat of the nvtv began to rise sharply from about 2019, the peak then in December. In January, there was a sharp decline associated with the introduction of quarantine measures.


Occupancy of the park at six Wu-chan hospitals reconstructed on the basis of satellite images. During the autumn of 2019, there was a noticeable number of shots compared to the previous year. But whether it was due to the mountains of lace seasons, and for him else, it is not clear from the data.

The satellite tracking was supplemented by the authors in the new study by the second component, namely the tracking trend in search on the Internet. This is the method of the year, in epidemiology it has been used for several years with relatively interesting results. In the fall of 2019, according to a study, the people of Wuhan and the surrounding area began to enter words that characterize the symptoms of covid-19, such as kael or diarrhea, much more often on our Baidu Internet search.

Reception is a somewhat debatable choice, as it may not be related to SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. It would be true that even if the patient really does not appear. For example, in May, a study published in Wuhan’s law (in addition to the hospital, which was included in the evaluation of satellite imagery) reported that approximately one in two hundred patients was admitted.

Evidence of an unrecognized covid-19 epidemic during 2019 is of course not, as the other authors acknowledge in the text. According to them, their work supports the hypothesis that the coronavirus naturally originated in another time when the case was caught in Wuhan and circulated freely. This is also quite strong, according to our opinion stronger, it should not be the result of the base.

Many uncertainties

However, it is probable that both (both the number of hospitals and the region) were only a manifestation of the extremely strong lace of the season, which in Wuchan, as in the US, was at least relatively low this year. With the advent of quarantine measures, the lace would of course also stop. (In Hong Kong, according to one analysis, the anti-SARS-CoV-2 virus cut the chip season roughly to a tetin and reduced the number of captured chip falls to roughly the aunt’s sweat from 2019.)


Reported cases of lace diseases (green) and confirmed case of covid-19 disease in Wuchan according to the epidemiological surveillance system. The authors of the Harvard analysis draw attention to the peak during the autumn, I can’t help but prove that it couldn’t be the normal course of the lace season.

Firstly, because the results for 2019 are comparable to 2018, but it looks at the past of mistakes. Mon in 2017 was to go mountains not in 2019, at this moment, so it is tk to mark last year as abnormal. According to the author, the satellite images from the old years for similar analyzes are small. After all, even for the years 2018 and 2019 there are not many of them: the cars had only 140 images available for six hospitals, also their data are very dk, there are big gaps in the data.

It is also problematic that the murderers did not start looking for the murderers and the receptionists at the same time and often. People were looking for income relatively often from August to the middle of the year. The search for the kael killer increased with the onset of the season’s chips.


The search for the killer kael (mode) and reception (red) in the Baidou internet search in the vicinity of Wuhan during 2019

The hypothesis of a hidden long-term en virus in Wuhan is undermined and given by the data. According to the available ones, there are not many people in the city who have antibodies against the virus. For example, according to a study published at the arrest of June in the journal Nature Medicine, the percentage of people with prostheses is essentially very similar to that in the Czech Republic, ie in percentage units.

Among the approximately 18,000 tested by the scientists who collected and analyzed ill blood, about 2.5 and 5.5 percent were positive for the presence of antibodies. (For all those who read our test articles, let’s add that the specificity was 99.3 percent for IgG antibodies and 100 percent for IgM.) Recall, however, the outcome of the large Preval study ranged between 0 and 3 percent.

If an epidemic had taken place in the city since August, the number of people with protests would probably have killed you. The analysis of satellite images does not provide enough evidence that all other data are one-dimensional.

Harvard vs na

As is usual in recent days and weeks, the Harvard result was quickly politicized. The result, specifically the first (and let’s add that it is really very speculative) the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in Wu-chan near mon in August ivz, reported a number of copper. The spokesman for the foreign ministry reacted quickly to the public result and called the study completely ridiculous.

What is primarily a politically motivated defeat. On the other hand, tracking the development of diseases from the rest of the field is still a new innovation, which many rocks. Although satellite tracking may seem like a universally applicable procedure, the truth is different.

Pronounced badly under local conditions. In Wuhan, for example, a number of days have been so frozen and the air so full of smog that there are no reliable data. The fact that some patients are parked in the wall for a day also played a role. According to the author of the study, this is enough to ensure that it is not possible to reliably know from the pictures how much the car costs at the hospital.

If the results can be obtained in other cases, the method could find a place in the epidemiology of the near future. Especially in countries and areas that rely on hospitals as healthcare providers and have powerful systems for collecting and evaluating epidemiological data.

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